Super Bowl XLIV – Early Line Movement
It’s rare that you see the two best teams in each conference make it to the Super Bowl. The 2000-2010 season is one of those rare cases. It’s a battle of behemoths. The futures odds put out prior to the playoffs are proof of this. The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints were the two favorites, and now they’re going to meet in the biggest annual sporting event in the world.
While some will be watching to see who wins the game, many more will be watching to see if they cover. Not only is the Super Bowl the biggest game in the world, but it’s also the most heavily wagered event in all of sports. For this Super Bowl, the Colts opened up as 5 point favorites and the total was 55. Since then, the Colts have moved to 5.5 point favorites and the total is 56.5. The question is, why?
The obvious answer is that more people are betting on the Colts and the over. But the question ‘why’ still remains. One reason can be that the Colts, when playing all their starters, were an undefeated team this season. Another might be that those who only watch Super Bowls recall the Colts trouncing the Bears in 2006. Of course, watching Peyton Manning pick apart the best defense in the NFL in the AFC Championship game is also a factor. On the other end of the ball, it was questionable whether the Saints even deserved to win their Championship game, and Drew Brees wasn’t at his best.
As far as the total goes, both Championship games went over and the Saints are the highest scoring team in the NFL. That’s a simple explanation for why the total has moved 1.5 points since it opened. This is great for people who like to play middles. This means they jump on one side, wait for the line to move a ton, and then take they other side. The worst they can do is lose the vig.
As far as this year’s line is concerned, don’t be surprised if it moves again.
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